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亚洲投资潜力房地产市场前10城市:
澳洲悉尼;
澳洲墨尔本;
新加坡;
上海;
越南胡志明;
深圳;
日本东京;
广州;
新西兰奥克兰
日本大阪.
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尽管香港房地产价格高昂且相对缺乏市场流动性从而导致投资机会的流失，但由于中国内地投资者持续涌入香港市场，导致房地产资产价格不断高涨。”高力国际亚洲估价及咨询服务部常务董事David Faulkner在11月20日的记者会上表示。
城市土地学会与普华永道11月20日联合发布的报告显示，多宗大额交易使得香港成为今年上半年亚洲最大的投资目的地，房地产投资总金额达到82.69亿美元，同比增加5%，亦是全球排名第五的房地产投资市场。
该报告指出，目前全球前四大的房地产投资市场分别为纽约、洛杉矶、伦敦及西雅图。该报告访问了亚太区内逾600名房地产专业人士，包括发展商、投资者和贷款机构从业者等。
尽管香港是2017年上半年亚洲最大的房地产投资目的地，但香港在具投资潜力市场排行榜上只排名13位，反映本港房地产价格高且相对缺乏市场流动性。
不过，该两机构编制的《2018年亚太区房地产市场新兴趋势报告》中，香港的最新排名比上年度的18位跳升五位，因多宗大额交易令香港上半年成为亚洲最大的房地产投资目的地，主要受寻求多元化投资的中资发展商参与本港土地竞投，购入多幅大型地皮带动。其次，不少投资者认为，香港零售舖位市场经历几年下行后已经触底。随着其他较活跃的核心市场的投资机会逐渐减少，外资核心基金经理重新在港寻找投资增值的机会。此外，东九龙新中心商务区（CBD）的房地产市场活动持续活跃。
罗兵咸永道亚太区房地产税务主管苏国基指出，香港的甲级写字楼很少放售，因此一旦放售的话成交价也会很高，故形成了香港房地产市场流动性低，但投资金额却很高。
报告指出，综观整个亚太地区，在所有影响区内房地产投资趋势的各种因素中，流动资金过剩被认为是最具影响力的因素。，于区内以至全球争相买入物业，因而造成资产市场的竞争，这从根本上及以意想不到的形式，改变了房地产市场投资模式。
这些变化包括重订传统的风险和回报的划分，改变对市场回报的期望，核心与风险投资者都将目光转移至增值型物业以及其他物业类别和以往不感兴趣的新兴市场，如数据中心、可负担的住房项目、供出租（或共享）的设施，以至学生和长者住房顼目。
今年的调查当中，大赢家是那些可为投资者通过提高租金来实现最大回报的城市（如悉尼和墨尔本）、，以及那些被视为能够长期增长的新兴市场（如越南）。除此之外，投资者对新加坡的投资前景信心也有所回升。市场相信，新加坡写字楼与住宅市场已经见底。
苏国基表示，2017年亚洲市场资金外流量有着前所未有的增长，几乎是去年同期的两倍，其中流向全球房地产市场的资金高达452亿美元。虽然近期中国大陆进一步加强资金管制对市场的影响程度仍属未知之数，但市场的共识是整体资金外流不大可能会大幅度下降。，加上目前已有大量内地资金在中国大陆境外，其中许多在香港，这些资金不受资金管制的约束。
事实上，今年以来较瞩目的土地成交都找到中资的身影，包括年初由中资发展商龙光地产(3380.HK)及合景泰富(1813.HK)合组财团，以约168.56亿港元中标的政府鸭脷洲住宅土地，但这幅住宅＂地王＂的纪录刚在上周被信和置业(0083.HK)等中港开发商财团，以172.88亿港元中标九龙长沙湾住宅土地所打破。此外，香港主要地产商--恒基地产(0012.HK)以232.8亿港元中标政府出售的中环美利道商业用地，刷新全港所有类型土地成交的＂地王＂纪录。
在整幢物业成交方面，长实集团(1113.HK)本月初以402亿港元出售中环甲级商厦“中环中心”物业。以交易总价计，将成为香港历来成交价最高的商厦买卖，买家财团当中亦包括中资企业。
亚洲资金涌入欧美房地产市场
统计显示，今年上半年亚洲市场流向全球房地产市场的资金高达452亿美元，是去年同期的两倍。这相当于全球房地产行业跨境投资金额的40%，也意味着亚洲已经成为与北美市场鼎足而立的房地产投资市场。
亚洲投资者对于欧美发达市场的大宗房地产交易情有独钟，今年上半年亚洲流入欧洲这类资产的金额同比激增225%至219亿美元，投资北美同类资产的资金则同比上升47%至113亿美元。相比之下，亚洲投资者在区内的投资金额则达到104亿美元，同比增加68%。
普华永道亚太区房地产税务主管苏国基指出：“多宗大宗交易使香港成为今年上半年亚洲最大的投资目的地，其中包括多宗大宗土地交易，反映中资发展商希望在低回报的内地市场以外寻找出路。同时，零售店铺方面，市场经过几年的下滑后，已经出现企稳回升的迹象。”
中资地产商于20世纪末楼市泡沫破灭后退出香港住宅土地市场，直至2011年逐渐重返，却迅速成为香港土地拍卖市场最活跃的力量。高力国际提供的数据显示，2016年初至今年第一季度，内地地产商在香港市场竞标获得10幅土地，总耗资588.9亿港元，占同期香港整体土地招标成交金额的57.7%。
11月15日，由信和置业、世茂地产、会德丰地产等五家发展商组成的财团，以172.88亿港元的价格投得长沙湾兴华街西附近的临海住宅地块，每平方英尺（约0.09平方米）楼面地价高达1.75万港元，刷新了香港住宅地价成交的历史纪录。据悉，此次招标吸引了众多内地的发展商，包括龙光地产、中国海外等均有参与竞标。
他续称，由于香港甲级和乙级写字楼租金差距明显，一些基金投资者希望寻找乙级写字楼物业，并通过翻新装修等使其增值。
越南成下一个淘金地
随着亚洲各国经济不断增长，吸引了越来越多的海外投资者进入一些新兴市场。其中，越南、印度是最热门的投资目的地。
“很多投资者认为越南有希望在未来10-15年经历中国此前的经济爆炸式增长，因此大量的国际投资者涌入了越南的房地产市场，尤其是住宅市场。”Faulkner表示。
以香港的家族企业新华集团为例，自2005年起，新华集团已经进入越南的住宅地产市场，西贡明珠项目已成为胡志明市最大的综合房地产项目。去年4月，新华集团与周大福合作的位于越南中部岘港的大型度假村项目正式动工，投资额高达40亿美元。
他续称，相比之下，印度市场由于规模较大，，“这类投资者在印度市场主要聚焦在商业地产，目前的资本化率（cap rate）大约为8.5%-8.75%。”
同时，在众多亚洲市场中，澳大利亚仍然最受投资者的追捧。“澳大利亚的悉尼和墨尔本在今年的投资及发展前景排名中名列前茅，因为它们既拥有稳定的投资环境，又有亚洲区内相对较高的收益率，而且未来租金的增长前景不错。”
苏国基表示，今年的投资前景排名反映了投资策略出现越来越大的分化，一些卖家倾向于追求资产增值，而另一些买家则注重租金回报。
Top trends identified by the report include the following:
Traditional risk/return classifications are breaking down in the Asia Pacific region.
Many opportunistic investors are now revising their return expectations downward.
Investors are converging in the value-add space, looking to make money from working their assets rather than via leverage or rental growth.
Investors are migrating into different markets and asset classes. Fund managers are now willing to look at data centers, affordable housing projects, build-to-rent facilities, as well as student and senior housing.
The top ten markets are as follows:
Sydney, Australia;
Melbourne, Australia;
Singapore;
Shanghai, China;
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam;
Shenzhen, China;
Tokyo, Japan;
Guangzhou, China;
Auckland, New Zealand; and
Osaka, Japan.
Change is in the air in the commercial real estate market of the region. The Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Asia Pacific 2018 report highlights the continued existence of excess liquidity in the region, with competition to buy prime assets in major Asian markets reaching “unprecedented levels.”
Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City in particular is singled out as a developing market. Colin Galloway—an Urban Land Institute consultant and the report’s principal author who spoke at an event in Hong Kong—even went as far as describing it as “the next China” in terms of interest and potential. The city clinches the top spot in all recommendations to buy: office, residential, retail, industrial, and hotel. Making the decision to invest in the city is not the hard part; finding assets to buy is. Despite the large amount of interest, there are still only small amounts of investable stock.
Singapore, which was ranked 21st in the previous City Investment Prospects list, has made a remarkable bounce back to third place this year. Following two years of declining rent amid a sluggish economy and a glut of supply, investors believe that the bottom is in sight, and that things will soon look up.
Tokyo also is given honorable mention in the Emerging Trends survey, where a healthy spread between current cap rates and Japan’s extremely low sovereign bond prices have turned it into an attractive spot for yield investors.
With an abundance of capital pouring into the region, the report points out that life is being made “increasingly difficult for anyone looking to invest in Asian real estate.” This challenge has led to changes in investor behavior: while some core buyers are migrating up the risk curve in search of yield, others are moving down the risk curve as they make conservative investments that will generate lower core proceeds.
Opportunistic investors are now being forced to tamper their return expectations, but both core and opportunistic investors are turning their attention toward value-add properties. This comes at a good time, since more and more buildings in Asia are in need of refurbishment and repositioning, creating opportunity for investors with capital.
There are more shifts: alternative asset classes, once overlooked or dismissed, are now moving into the spotlight. Competition is thinner among these unconventional options and the yields are higher.
“There are more investors nowadays who are willing to look at niche asset classes than in the past,” said Galloway.
Data centers, for example, are gaining favor. “Right now, we’re about to build one of Hong Kong’s largest data centers, basically from the ground up,” said Hong Kong panelist James Wong, executive director of Hon Kwok Land Investment Co. Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Our rental, to give you a taste of what it’s like: a warehouse when we bought it at breakeven was $15 a square foot; by the time we finish if we build a warehouse today, probably $20 a square foot. If we do a data center, it’s probably $280 a square foot.”
Affordable housing and multifamily housing also are on the ascendant—it’s a sector that appeals to institutional investors, but a viable business model is still being sought. Apart from Japan, Asian markets have little history of build-to-rent as an asset class.
Similarly, student housing and senior housing are increasingly becoming options for investors to consider. Student housing, in particular, has been booming in Australia, while senior housing is set to become a big deal in the Asian context, where populations are aging rapidly.
Coworking operators are now the biggest source of demand for new office space in many major Asian cities. This new trend has been met with some reluctance from investors and landlords, though. “I’ll tell you why developers are very, let’s say, diffident about dealing with coworking spaces. One of my leasing guys told me, ‘James, you realize these are a bunch of kids who are going to take over these spaces, these are not grown-ups, these are kids! So if the company that’s doing the coworking fails to pay the rent, you shut them out, these kids are going to form a picket line in front of our building!’” Wong joked.
He added: “I think the main reason, though, is not the picket line, but the fact that the hurdle, the barrier of entry for coworking is so low—anybody can call themselves coworking—as a landlord, you’ve got to have to go through double the kinds of checks.”
“We’re seeing a lot of morphing of the classic cowork model, and I think we work as a classic example of this, where it’s gone from renting to individuals who are startup founders which have one, three, five people, actually to renting to corporates,” said Hong Kong panelist Lawrence Morgan, chief executive officer of Nest/Metta.
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